This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a great deal of cash from this week contemplating it is a more compact card and starts at 10:15am ET. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $25k decoration, then I will probably take a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a great amount of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I don’t believe there are really no money locks nowadays, so I needed to bring a money plan I use a great deal of the time, which can be punting in cash and accepting a reduction. I don’t think Roxy gets the win here, but she’s only $6.9k and I think she gets 15-minutes of action. I like the flooring that accompanies this and punting along with her cheap cost enables us to fit in a lot of the higher favorites with our other five spots. We do not need 6 wins in cash games, so I don’t believe we will need to even try for this. I like playing cash games safer and if I can lock 25-35 points at a reduction from Roxy in her cheap price I’m totally ok with that. I look for 4 wins in cash and over 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal weekly. Let everyone else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score that can conquer 50% or more of the area.
GPP play of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This is an all-in fight for GPPs in my opinion and I like Overeem among my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be amazed to see this move all 5 rounds. I also think Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels ahead of him at the game that is spectacular. The sole shot Oleinik has of winning on the feet is by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Besides those two outcomes, Overeem will smoke on the toes. In addition, I believe Overeem can work his way back into his toes if he is taken down and the longer Oleinik shoots for takedowns the quicker he will gas out. I enjoy the -175 ITD lineup that comes with Overeem here and I believe he gets a complete in round 1 or 2. That should give us close to 100 DK points if not more, and I need that in lots of my GPP lineups.
Underdog play of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) however DraftKings salaries do not change as soon as they’re released. We get Fiziev here for $800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he’s favored to get the win. I was very impressed with what I saw from this child and that I agree with all the line movement. I do think he gets the win , but it’s the DK value that we want to be sure to find exposure to this weekend. I think he is an excellent play cash games with the present value and that I expect to be overweight on him GPPs too. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and if we can use a popular as one of those”underdogs” then I am usually on board for it.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week for her $9.3k price label. I do think she has the win here since I said earlier, I simply don’t see the way she’ll pay off that wages with no finish. I don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this game, and I don’t wish to rely on her getting knockdown points either. So, we are only going to be getting 0.5 points per significant attack, and the 30-point win bonus when she wins a decision. If this is the case, we’d need her to land over 126 sig strikes simply to secure more than 10x worth. I don’t see that being the case and that I think she likely scores 80-85 DK points in a decision triumph. At her wages, that won’t win anybody the large $25k. That is the prize I am shooting so that is why she’s my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 69-41 for +237.39u (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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